Trump policy risks to battery energy storage industry

On Jan. 20, 2025, Donald Trump will be inaugurated president of the United States and analysts are predicting his administration will make sweeping changes to the clean energy landscape.
A report from Clean Energy Associates (CEA) highlighted five potential risks to the battery energy storage industry, including risks to electric vehicle (EV) batteries, grid-scale energy storage, and home battery energy storage.
1) Antidumping/countervailing duty (AD/CVD) enforcement
A new AD/CVD petition was filed in December 2024 against imports of critical battery ingredient anode active material (AAM), from China.
Anodes made with Chinese AAM, and batteries, would be subject to duties which, on average in recent AD/CVD orders have exceeded 100% of the cost of the imported goods. Around 74% of AD/CVD petitions result in new duties being imposed on importers.
CEA said there is a high probability of new duties, with a moderate impact on the market. It expects action to take place as soon as Feb. 16, 2025.
2) Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act (UFLPA) battery detentions
President-elect Trump has nominated Marco Rubio as his secretary of state, which CEA said brings an elevated risk of far-reaching and more severe enforcement of the UFLPA.
Battery importers placed on the UFLPA list are faced with a rebuttable presumption that their product is contaminated by a supply chain that participated in forced labor. It can be very difficult to prove no finding of forced labor under a rebuttable presumption, meaning that most suppliers placed on a UFLPA list would be barred from bringing product to the United States.
This outcome, which would require action from the president, is considered highly likely to occur and is a high impact risk, said CEA. Its report said UFLPA battery supplier enforcement could begin as soon as February 2025.
3) Section 301 60% tariff
Based on campaign promises, the Trump administration is expected to increase Section 301 tariffs, based on the U.S. Trade Act of 1974, which enables the president to take action against practices injurious to United States commerce or in breach of international trade agreements. The president-elect pledge Section 301 tariffs of 60% on multiple goods from China while he was campaigning. A 60% tariff would force battery procurement away from Chinese suppliers to Korean and Japanese companies and generally increase prices, said CEA.
CEA said new Section 301 tariffs are likely and will have a moderate-to-high impact on the market as soon as March 2025.
4) Tariffs on Section 232 battery supply chain
Reuters has reported Trump’s transition team has suggested tariffs to EV battery and supply chain tariffs under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, which concerns imports which could harm US national security. CEA said any such tariff levels are unknown but could include battery energy storage systems.
CEA sees Section 232 tariffs as having a moderate probability of occurring, with a moderate-to-high market risk occurring in Q1, 2026 or later.
5) Erosion of Section 48 Investment Tax Credit
CEA said it finds a full reprise of the Section 48E clean electricity Investment Tax Credit (ITC) contained in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) unlikely; however there is a distinct possibility it may be phased out as early as 2027, instead of in the mid-2030s. This shortening of the tax credits would likely take place as part of the bill’s reconciliation process.
“Sunsetting” the IRA tax credits would require action from both the president and Congress. CEA said there is a moderate-to-high risk of this happening, with a highly negative impact on the market as soon as Q2, 2025.
From pv magazine USA.