Brazil energy plan forecasts 7 GW of behind-the-meter battery storage by 2035

Brazil’s latest 10-year energy expansion plan projects rapid growth in behind-the-meter battery storage as falling technology costs improve the economics of residential, commercial, and industrial systems.

“Plano Decenal de Expansão de Energia (PDE) 2035,” prepared by the Energy Research Office (EPE) and approved by the Ministry of Mines and Energy, forecasts 7 GW of behind-the-meter battery storage capacity by 2035, equivalent to about 2% of the country’s electricity capacity.

The report also projects distributed generation capacity will reach 78.1 GW under its reference scenario by 2035, with rooftop and other distributed solar installations remaining the main driver. Total distributed generation could range from 61.4 GW to 97.8 GW, serving about 9.5 million consumers.

EPE said declining lithium-ion battery prices are making storage increasingly competitive, particularly where system costs fall below BRL 2,000 ($370)/kWh, allowing batteries to replace diesel generators during peak demand periods.

The agency said batteries will also increase solar self-consumption by storing excess daytime generation for later use. While economics remain challenging for many residential applications, continued cost declines and expected regulatory changes after 2029 are likely to accelerate adoption.

The plan also marks a shift in Brazil’s energy planning by explicitly incorporating distributed energy resources, including behind-the-meter storage, into long-term assessments of generation, transmission, and grid operations.

From pv magazine Brazil